The college football world was wishing for a March Madness type of feel for the first-ever 12-team College Football Playoff, with upsets galore. Instead, the 4 first-round matchups underwhelmed, offering a lot of time for holiday shopping. Favorites went a perfect 4-0 versus the spread, including 3 fairly non-competitive efficiencies by underdogs Indiana, SMU and Tennessee. Sportsbooks and the public don’t seem to believe so. A minimum of in two cases.

Both Penn State-Boise State and Texas-Arizona State function double-digit spreads preferring the lower-seeded Nittany Lions and Longhorns. And the latter has been a specifically popular pick with the general public. The Longhorns -12.5 is the most-bet side at BetMGM nationally in regards to overall dollars since Monday afternoon.
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“All the cash is being available in on Texas,” Seamus Magee, a BetMGM trader, wrote in a text to The Athletic. “We require Arizona State to cover +13.5.”

The enthusiasm for the Longhorns extends to the futures market as well. Keep in mind that enormous $1.5 million wager on Texas to win all of it at +390 chances? The ticket is still out there at Caesars Sportsbook.

Interestingly, the Longhorns’ challenger, Arizona State - the most significant underdog amongst the College Football quarterfinal matchups - is getting the most like from sharp wagerers. The Athletic talked to a number of bookmakers who had taken sharp action on No. 4 Arizona State - which had actually gotten as high as a 14-point underdog at some books against No. 5 Texas - to push the line down to -12.5 or -12.

John Murray, the executive director at The Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook, informed us he received a wager on Arizona State +13.5 from a “extremely highly regarded player.”

Despite the fact that reputable cash has can be found in on Arizona State to cover, sportsbooks will likely need the Sun Devils to do simply that, as public bettors are stacking on Texas.

“We would enjoy to see ASU cover, and after that Texas win the video game, so we get our Arizona State liability off the futures book,” Magee added.

While the Texas game will be big for the books, it isn’t the only game in the area. We chatted with several bookies to break down where the wagering action is on the other three College Football quarterfinal matches. 6 Penn State (-11, 53) at No. 3 Boise State

This game opened Penn State -10.5 at the majority of sportsbooks and has actually crept up slightly to a consensus of -11. sports betting on the spread is relatively divided at many sportsbooks. The overall dollars bet varies by book, as 52% of bets and 79% of the money at BetMGM nationally are on Boise State -11, while 56% of bets but just 42% of the cash at DraftKings is on Boise State -11.5. Penn State to cover is presently the 2nd most popular CFP wager in regards to total tickets at BetMGM books.

“We opened Penn State -10.5 and are resting on Penn State -11,” Thomas Gable, sportsbook director at The Borgata in Atlantic City, told The Athletic. “I wouldn’t be shocked if this line approaches a little bit more before kickoff, but I presently invite any Boise State money.”

Ohio State got the Oregon second chance it desired. Are the Buckeyes all set for revenge?

No. 8 Ohio State (-2.5, 55.5) vs. No. 1 Oregon

Perhaps most to the public is that No. 1 seed Oregon is an underdog against No. 8 Ohio State. These teams satisfied back on Oct. 7 in Eugene, and Oregon won 32-31 as a 3.5-point home dog.

So why is OSU preferred?

Several oddsmakers The Athletic talked with before the CFP preliminary had Ohio State atop their power scores, and the lookahead lines for this theoretical matchup were Ohio State -1 or -1.5. One oddsmaker discussed that Ohio State playing up to its power ranking in its dominant first-round win over Tennessee likewise shaped his opening line.

Ohio State opened as a 1- or 1.5-point preferred (depending upon the sportsbook) in this game before reputable money pressed it to the present line of -2.5. A slightly greater bulk of wagers at several sportsbooks, approximately 60%, are on the Ducks to cover, while near to 60% of the cash has actually come in on the Buckeyes. This will likely be the highest-handle video game of the four come kickoff.

“We did take some highly regarded cash at -1.5, quickly went to -2.5 where it’s stayed,” Gable said. “It’s good two-way action at that number today. The total has increased three points from 52.5 to 55.5, which has been the most significant move of any of the totals. Money has all been on the over up until now.

Joe Brennan, the CEO of Prime sports betting, a sportsbook in Ohio and New Jersey that deals with sharp wagerers, informed The Athletic that “Ohio State opened as a 1-point favorite, and immediately our Ohio gamblers thought we were too low. Our opening price of Ohio State -1 has been driven up to -2.5 and the total from 52 to 55.”

He did note, though, that the book had seen substantial buyback at the present line of Ohio State -2.5 and that 52% of the overall dollars at his book were taking the points with the Ducks.

GO DEEPER

The most likely upsets for the College Football Playoff’s second round

No. 7 Notre Dame vs. No. 2 Georgia (-1, 45)

The favorite flipped in this game, as Notre Dame opened a 1.5-point preferred and is currently a 1- or 1.5-point underdog at sportsbooks.

What triggered the line turn? Basically, the wagering action.
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Despite the fact that Georgia’s beginning QB Carson Beck is out for the season and has been changed by relative unidentified Gunner Stockton, bettors are gravitating toward the Bulldogs.

Georgia to cover is the most popular versus the spread wager at BetMGM books nationally in regards to ticket count (second-most popular by total dollars wagered), and it has been “one-way traffic on Georgia,” according to Magee. Nearly 70% of bets are on the Bulldogs at several sportsbooks.
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