The recent revelations of a International Energy Administration whistleblower that the IEA might have misshaped crucial oil projections under intense U.S. pressure is, if true (and whistleblowers seldom come forward to advance their careers), a slow-burning thermonuclear surge on future worldwide oil production. The Bush administration’s actions in pressing the IEA to underplay the rate of decrease from existing oil fields while overplaying the chances of discovering brand-new reserves have the prospective to throw federal governments’ long-term preparation into chaos.

Whatever the truth, rising long term worldwide demands seem certain to outstrip production in the next years, particularly provided the high and rising costs of developing new super-fields such as Kazakhstan’s overseas Kashagan and Brazil’s southern Atlantic Jupiter and Carioca fields, which will require billions in financial investments before their first barrels of oil are produced.

In such a situation, additives and substitutes such as biofuels will play an ever-increasing role by extending beleaguered production quotas. As market forces and rising prices drive this technology to the forefront, among the wealthiest possible production locations has been completely neglected by investors up to now - Central Asia. Formerly the USSR’s cotton “plantation,” the region is poised to become a major gamer in the production of biofuels if enough foreign financial investment can be procured. Unlike Brazil, where biofuel is produced largely from sugarcane, or the United States, where it is mostly distilled from corn, Central Asia’s ace resource is a native plant, Camelina sativa.

Of the previous Soviet Caucasian and Central Asian republics, those clustered around the shores of the Caspian, Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan have actually seen their economies boom due to the fact that of record-high energy prices, while Turkmenistan is waiting in the wings as an increasing producer of gas.

Farther to the east, in Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan, geographical isolation and reasonably scant hydrocarbon resources relative to their Western Caspian neighbors have mainly hindered their ability to cash in on increasing international energy demands already. Mountainous Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan remain largely dependent for their electrical needs on their Soviet-era hydroelectric facilities, but their increased need to produce winter electrical power has actually caused autumnal and winter water discharges, in turn seriously affecting the agriculture of their western downstream neighbors Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan.

What these three downstream nations do have however is a Soviet-era tradition of farming production, which in Uzbekistan’s and Turkmenistan case was mainly directed towards cotton production, while Kazakhstan, starting in the 1950s with Khrushchev’s “Virgin Lands” programs, has actually ended up being a significant manufacturer of wheat. Based on my conversations with Central Asian government officials, offered the thirsty needs of cotton monoculture, foreign propositions to diversify agrarian production towards biofuel would have excellent appeal in Astana, Ashgabat and Tashkent and to a lower extent Astana for those sturdy financiers ready to bet on the future, specifically as a plant indigenous to the area has already shown itself in trials.

Known in the West as false flax, wild flax, linseed dodder, German sesame and Siberian oilseed, camelina is bring in increased clinical interest for its oleaginous qualities, with numerous European and American business currently examining how to produce it in business quantities for biofuel. In January Japan Airlines undertook a historic test flight using camelina-based bio-jet fuel, ending up being the very first Asian carrier to try out flying on fuel derived from sustainable feedstocks during a one-hour presentation flight from Tokyo’s Haneda Airport. The test was the conclusion of a 12-month examination of camelina’s functional performance capability and possible business viability.

As an alternative energy source, camelina has much to advise it. It has a high oil content low in saturated fat. In contrast to Central Asia’s thirsty “king cotton,” camelina is drought-resistant and immune to spring freezing, requires less fertilizer and herbicides, and can be used as a rotation crop with wheat, which would make it of particular interest in Kazakhstan, now Central Asia’s significant wheat exporter. Another reward of camelina is its tolerance of poorer, less fertile conditions. An acre sown with camelina can produce up to 100 gallons of oil and when planted in rotation with wheat, camelina can increase wheat production by 15 percent. A lot (1000 kg) of camelina will contain 350 kg of oil, of which pushing can extract 250 kg. Nothing in camelina production is lost as after processing, the plant’s particles can be used for livestock silage. Camelina silage has an especially appealing concentration of omega-3 fats that make it an especially great animals feed candidate that is simply now gaining recognition in the U.S. and Canada. Camelina is quick growing, produces its own natural herbicide (allelopathy) and contends well versus weeds when an even crop is developed. According to Britain’s Bangor University’s Centre for Alternative Land Use, “Camelina could be a perfect low-input crop suitable for bio-diesel production, due to its lower requirements for nitrogen fertilizer than oilseed rape.”

Camelina, a branch of the mustard family, is indigenous to both Europe and Central Asia and hardly a brand-new crop on the scene: historical evidence suggests it has actually been cultivated in Europe for a minimum of three centuries to produce both grease and animal fodder.

Field trials of production in Montana, currently the center of U.S. camelina research study, showed a large range of outcomes of 330-1,700 pounds of seed per acre, with oil content differing between 29 and 40%. Optimal seeding rates have been determined to be in the 6-8 pound per acre variety, as the seeds’ little size of 400,000 seeds per pound can create issues in germination to accomplish an optimal plant density of around 9 plants per sq. ft.

Camelina’s potential could enable Uzbekistan to begin breaking out of its most dolorous tradition, the of a cotton monoculture that has deformed the nation’s attempts at agrarian reform given that achieving self-reliance in 1991. Beginning in the late 19th century, the Russian government figured out that Central Asia would become its cotton plantation to feed Moscow’s growing fabric industry. The procedure was accelerated under the Soviets. While Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Tajikistan and Turkmenistan were also ordered by Moscow to sow cotton, Uzbekistan in specific was singled out to produce “white gold.”

By the end of the 1930s the Soviet Union had actually become self-dependent in cotton