The college football world was wishing for a March Madness type of feel for the first-ever 12-team College Football Playoff, with upsets galore. Instead, the four first-round matchups underwhelmed, offering lots of time for vacation shopping. Favorites went a best 4-0 against the spread, consisting of three relatively non-competitive performances by underdogs Indiana, SMU and Tennessee. Sportsbooks and the public do not appear to think so. At least in 2 cases.
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Both Penn State-Boise State and Texas-Arizona State feature double-digit spreads favoring the lower-seeded Nittany Lions and Longhorns. And the latter has been a particularly popular pick with the general public. The Longhorns -12.5 is the most-bet side at BetMGM nationally in terms of overall dollars as of Monday afternoon.

“All the cash is can be found in on Texas,” Seamus Magee, a BetMGM trader, wrote in a text message to The Athletic. “We require Arizona State to cover +13.5.”
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The enthusiasm for the Longhorns reaches the futures market also. Remember that huge $1.5 million wager on Texas to win everything at +390 chances? The ticket is still out there at Caesars Sportsbook.

Interestingly, the Longhorns’ opponent, Arizona State - the most significant underdog amongst the College Football quarterfinal matchups - is getting the most like from sharp wagerers. The Athletic talked to a number of bookies who had actually taken sharp action on No. 4 Arizona State - which had actually gotten as high as a 14-point underdog at some books against No. 5 Texas - to press the line down to -12.5 or -12.

John Murray, the executive director at The Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook, informed us he got a wager on Arizona State +13.5 from a “very respected gamer.”

Even though highly regarded money has actually can be found in on Arizona State to cover, sportsbooks will likely require the Sun Devils to do just that, as public wagerers are stacking on Texas.
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“We would enjoy to see ASU cover, and after that Texas win the video game, so we get our Arizona State liability off the futures book,” .

While the Texas game will be substantial for the books, it isn’t the only game in the area. We chatted with multiple bookmakers to break down where the wagering action is on the other three College Football quarterfinal matches. 6 Penn State (-11, 53) at No. 3 Boise State

This game opened Penn State -10.5 at many sportsbooks and has actually sneaked up a little to an agreement of -11. sports betting on the spread is fairly split at a lot of sportsbooks. The total dollars bet differs by book, as 52% of bets and 79% of the money at BetMGM nationally are on Boise State -11, while 56% of bets but just 42% of the money at DraftKings is on Boise State -11.5. Penn State to cover is currently the 2nd most popular CFP wager in regards to total tickets at BetMGM books.

“We opened Penn State -10.5 and are sitting on Penn State -11,” Thomas Gable, sportsbook director at The Borgata in Atlantic City, informed The Athletic. “I would not be shocked if this line creeps up a bit more before kickoff, however I currently invite any Boise State cash.”

Ohio State got the Oregon second chance it wanted. Are the Buckeyes ready for vengeance?

No. 8 Ohio State (-2.5, 55.5) vs. No. 1 Oregon

Perhaps most unexpected to the public is that No. 1 seed Oregon is an underdog versus No. 8 Ohio State. These teams satisfied back on Oct. 7 in Eugene, and Oregon won 32-31 as a 3.5-point home pet.

So why is OSU favored?

Several oddsmakers The Athletic talked with before the CFP very first round had Ohio State atop their power scores, and the lookahead lines for this theoretical match were Ohio State -1 or -1.5. One oddsmaker mentioned that Ohio State playing up to its power ranking in its dominant first-round win over Tennessee also shaped his opening line.

Ohio State opened as a 1- or 1.5-point preferred (depending upon the sportsbook) in this video game before highly regarded money pushed it to the current line of -2.5. A a little higher majority of wagers at a number of sportsbooks, roughly 60%, are on the Ducks to cover, while near 60% of the cash has been available in on the Buckeyes. This will likely be the highest-handle game of the four come kickoff.

“We did take some respected cash at -1.5, quickly went to -2.5 where it’s stayed,” Gable stated. “It’s good two-way action at that number right now. The total has gone up 3 points from 52.5 to 55.5, which has actually been the most significant move of any of the overalls. Money has all been on the over so far.

Joe Brennan, the CEO of Prime sports betting, a sportsbook in Ohio and New Jersey that caters to sharp wagerers, told The Athletic that “Ohio State opened as a 1-point preferred, and instantly our Ohio wagerers thought we were too low. Our opening cost of Ohio State -1 has been driven up to -2.5 and the overall from 52 to 55.”

He did note, though, that the book had seen substantial buyback at the current line of Ohio State -2.5 which 52% of the overall dollars at his book were taking the points with the Ducks.

GO DEEPER

The most likely upsets for the College Football Playoff’s 2nd round

No. 7 Notre Dame vs. No. 2 Georgia (-1, 45)

The favorite turned in this game, as Notre Dame opened a 1.5-point preferred and is currently a 1- or 1.5-point underdog at sportsbooks.

What triggered the line flip? Put simply, the sports betting action.
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Although Georgia’s beginning QB Carson Beck is out for the season and has been replaced by relative unidentified Gunner Stockton, bettors are gravitating toward the Bulldogs.

Georgia to cover is the most popular versus the spread wager at BetMGM books nationally in terms of ticket count (second-most popular by overall dollars wagered), and it has been “one-way traffic on Georgia,” according to Magee. Nearly 70% of bets are on the Bulldogs at numerous sportsbooks.
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